The Indian rupee fell to a fresh low on March 27, as risks mounted that the war with Iran would last much longer, making Brent crude oil prices surge above $100 per barrel.
The local currency ended at Rs 94.81 per dollar, eclipsing the previous record low of Rs 93.98 per dollar in the last session. The currency moved in a broad range of about 80 paise during the day. The rupee had opened at Rs 94.15 per dollar.
It has now depreciated almost 5 percent against the dollar, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia.
The war in West Asia is currently in its fourth week, with no immediate signs of stopping. Although US President Donald Trump had said that he is delaying planned strikes on Iranian power plants, that did not do much to prop up investor sentiment. Brent crude oil prices are currently trading at $109 per barrel.
By the looks of it, Rs 95 could be imminent in the next couple of sessions, if things do not improve on the war front.
Back home, the rupee was further pressured as importers, such as oil marketing companies, were seen buying the greenback, as these were seen as plausible levels to hedge themselves against further volatility, according to traders.
“The rupee has slipped to a fresh low against the dollar, with the RBI intervening intermittently to curb volatility even as oil companies and foreign portfolio investors continued to buy dollars,” according to analysts from Finrex Treasury Advisors.
It did not help that the Indian government, earlier in the day, announced that it would reduce the excise duty on petrol and diesel products by Rs 10 per litre, although these prices will not be passed on to retail customers.
Meanwhile, the 10-year benchmark bond yield spiked to 6.9212 percent to a near 15-month high, as compared to 6.8750 percent in the previous trading session. By the looks of it, bond yields may cross the psychological 7 percent mark soon, according to experts.
“India’s bond market is currently being repriced by a combination of global oil shock, currency pressure, and a visible shift in RBI’s approach. Unless there is an intervention by the so-called “other category”, a move above 7 percent in G-Secs now looks inevitable,” Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan, a bond market expert, said.
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